The ocean freight market is bracing for a shift in rates and capacity management as carriers prepare for increased demand from Asia ahead of the Lunar New Year.

While spot rates have softened recently months, market expectations are for a rebound in November, as carriers implement blank sailings and push through rate increases to stabilise the market.

Capacity cuts have been a key strategy for carriers trying to balance supply and demand, particularly as rates struggled during the traditionally slow post-Golden Week period. However, with Lunar New Year falling earlier in 2025, demand is expected to rise, prompting carriers to reduce available space on vessels to push rates higher.

This comes amid a backdrop of significant growth in fleet size, with carriers adding new ultra-large vessels while keeping idle capacity low. Global cargo volume is forecast to grow modestly over the next two years, but fleet expansion is set to outpace this demand, putting pressure on the market.

Key market developments:

  • Capacity cuts: Carriers are blanking around 20% of Asia-Europe capacity in October, a rise from previous months as they aim to control supply.
  • Rate increases: Several carriers have announced GRIs for November, seeking to capitalise on rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year.
  • Port congestion: Weather-related disruptions and labour shortages at key ports in Europe and Asia are contributing to delays and adding to the challenges of managing capacity.

 

Despite the significant capacity reductions, rates have not yet risen as expected, but the combination of reduced sailings and increasing demand is likely to push rates up in the coming weeks. Weather-related port congestion, particularly in Hamburg, Felixstowe, and Shanghai, may further exacerbate these pressures as carriers work to manage both capacity and schedules.

The shipping industry is also grappling with a rapidly growing fleet, as over three million TEUs of new capacity are scheduled for delivery in 2024. This imbalance between fleet growth and cargo volume increases is likely to continue influencing rates and capacity management in the near term, making market conditions volatile for the remainder of the year.

We recommend sharing your shipping forecasts as early as possible, so we can secure space on vessels and avoid congestion at affected ports.

To ensure your supply chain remains robust in the face of disruptions, we recommend talking with us, so we can devise tailored solutions that safeguard your ocean freight operations. Proactive strategies that will secure capacity, and provide the best possible rates during this turbulent peak season.

For more information, please EMAIL us to learn how we mitigate for supply chain challenges.